Indian benchmark indices traded in positive territory on Monday, with the BSE Sensex gaining over 300 points and the Nifty 50 moving above the 24,432 mark, even as elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions in West Asia continued to keep investors cautious.
After opening on a weak note amid global uncertainty, the markets staged a steady recovery through the morning session. The Sensex climbed to around 78,800 levels, while the Nifty advanced past 24,430, reversing early losses as investors selectively bought heavyweight banking and financial stocks.
The rebound comes at a time when global markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the crude oil market. Brent crude has been hovering near $95 per barrel, following renewed concerns over supply disruptions linked to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and broader West Asia uncertainty. For an oil-import dependent economy like India, sustained crude price strength remains a key macro risk, influencing inflation expectations, currency movement, and corporate earnings outlook.
Market participants said the current gains reflect resilience rather than outright bullishness. While frontline indices managed to recover, the broader mood remained fragile, with volatility indicators pointing to continued nervousness among traders. India VIX moved higher, signalling increased risk perception and caution in leveraged positions.
Financial stocks once again emerged as the main support for the benchmarks. Strong earnings-led buying in major private lenders helped offset weakness in rate-sensitive and crude-linked sectors. Banking counters, especially large-cap names, provided the necessary lift to both Sensex and Nifty, even as select realty and consumer-facing stocks traded under pressure.
Analysts say crude remains the biggest variable for the market in the near term. A sustained spike above the $100-per-barrel mark could reignite concerns around imported inflation and the Reserve Bank of India’s policy trajectory. Recent sessions have already shown how quickly sentiment can swing, with markets witnessing sharp intraday sell-offs whenever oil prices surge and geopolitical risks intensify.
Despite these risks, foreign institutional investors have shown selective buying interest over the last few sessions, helping the benchmarks stabilize after the recent correction. This steady inflow, combined with bargain hunting in fundamentally strong large-cap stocks, has supported the ongoing recovery rally.
From a technical perspective, market experts are closely watching the 24,500–24,550 zone on the Nifty as the next immediate resistance. On the downside, 24,250 remains a key support level. A decisive move beyond the upper band could strengthen the short-term bullish structure, while renewed pressure in crude may once again trigger volatility.
For now, Dalal Street appears to be balancing optimism over domestic earnings and foreign inflows against persistent global risks. With crude oil prices and geopolitical headlines continuing to drive sentiment, investors are expected to remain stock-specific and cautious through the rest of the session.
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Edited By D.Rishidhar Reddy
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